Methodology of Epidemic Risk Management in Kazakhstan with Open-Source EIDSS

Introduction In order to transition the forecasting, estimation and management of epidemic risks to individual administrative areas, the Agency for Consumer Rights Protection of Kazakhstan has developed a concept for modernizing the existing national system of the epidemiological surveillance (SES). It is proposed that the data from the SES (epidemiology, sanitary and epidemiological background, external environmental objects and database) will be consolidated to generate a new epidemic risk control and management tool called the Regional Sanitary-Epidemiological Passport (RSEP) for each of Kazakhstan’s districts. The RSEP will contain infectious incidence rate dynamics according to the primary (marker) infections (7 nosologies) including a forecast for 2-3 years, and natural and soil foci GIS maps for especially dangerous pathogens (EDP) with a 3-5 year forecast of their activity. The RSEP is planned as a new working tool for epidemiologists to aid in making objective estimates, forecasting epidemic risks in particular areas of Kazakhstan, and taking preventive steps to lower epidemic risks.